New Brunswick, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

847
FXUS61 KPHI 150759
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
359 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain situated across near the
Chesapeake region through Tuesday yielding unsettled weather
conditions. The front will then begin to lift northward as a
warm front on Tuesday night into Wednesday across our area as an
area of high pressure settles near Bermuda mid-week. A low
pressure system begins to approach the area on Thursday with a
cold frontal passage Thursday night. High pressure returns for
Friday into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cloudy, showery, drizzly, and humid conditions expected to close out
the weekend along with below normal temperatures. Continuing with
Saurday`s theme, nothing of particular interest to note as far as
impacts go with the convective activity in our region, however the
lousy conditions won`t be good news for any outdoor activities.

Quasi zonal and relatively weak flow will continue to prevail aloft,
though we will remain in the vicinity of the right entrance region
of a zonal jet toward our northeast. This mid level diffluence will
continue to provide a prolonged period of modest ascent through
tonight, which will lead to prevailing cloudy skies and periods of
showery weather. At the surface, a stalled to slowly moving frontal
boundary will remain in place to our southwest, with surface ridging
extending into the region from southern New England.

As far as precipitation chances go, not great confidence through
tonight regarding any details of timing and coverage of showers.
There will continue to be a lot of mesoscale factors at play. Long
story short, there will be at least some chance of showers through
tonight. PWats will be high (1.25-1.75"), so any robust and
persistent convection that can develop will produce efficient
rainfall rates. Any heavier rainfall will be very brief, and thus
the flood threat is low.

With the frontal boundary now well displaced to our southwest, we`ll
have much less diurnal influence on convection. The latest guidance
still varies considerably in timing and coverage of precipitation
today through tonight, which isn`t surprising given the subtle
forcing at play. The overnight showers should wane toward mid
morning, then another round of showers may develop by midday into
the afternoon, but again, low confidence on this. We`ve stuck with
NBM PoPs through tonight for the forecast. The main idea is
scattered showers can be expected. An isolated rumble of thunder is
possible, but the chance of lightning is quite low overall as the
instability is to our southwest where the frontal boundary is
located. Areas of drizzle or fog may develop across the coastal
plain as well.

Temperatures will be mainly in the 60s to perhaps near 70 degrees in
Delmarva. Lows tonight in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
There continues to be little overall chance to the beginning of
the workweek as a low pressure system will ride along the
stationary boundary located to our south. The bulk of the shower
threat will be displaced to the south but there does appear to
be a brief period when we`ll see some light rain develop with
perhaps a rumble of thunder. For areas north of Philadelphia,
it should largely should remain dry (PoPs less than 20%). On
Monday evening, the boundary will gradually start lift north as
a modest warm front leading to warming temperatures hading into
the work week. Another weak disturbance will ride along the
boundary yielding another period for some rain showers and
isolated thunder to occur (PoPs 20-40%) across the entire region
as the front is in closer proximity to the area Tuesday into
Tuesday evening.

As the previous shift discussed, by no means do we anticipate a
washout but there will be periods of unsettled weather with
light rain/drizzle coming through in rounds. Highs will mainly
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Monday with mid to upper 70s
on Tuesday. Lows will remain uniform mainly in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure starts building through the middle of the week
with warm air advection pushing into the region. An upper
level ridge will be located over the Southeast US on Wednesday
as a trough develops over the Great Lakes region on Thursday.
This will push temps well into the upper 80s to low 90`s for
areas south and east of I95.

Surface high pressure will be located near Bermuda where it
will persist through the end of the week. Low pressure will also
be tracking through the Great Lakes on Thursday tracking and
into New England on Friday with a cold front trailing to the
southwest, crossing through late in the week.

For Wednesday, we`ll begin to see the beginning of a
considerable warm-up as the warm front lifts north of the area.
Some spotty thunderstorms may occur due to the combination of
the passage of the front and diurnal heating. Otherwise,
attention then turns to the cold front that will approach the
area on Thursday into Thursday night. Forcing does appear to be
quite strong with the deepening trough, so at this point it does
seem plausible for there to be at the very least some strong
thunderstorms around Thursday afternoon and evening. This is
supported quite well by the machine learning guidance by
UCAR/NCAR which has a targeted area of severe weather potential
over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Will continue to monitor
for trends in the guidance but regardless, the general idea that
a front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area is
consistent with the guidance. Improving weather should return
by Friday and into next weekend as high pressure returns.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...MVFR to IFR ceilings and VFR to MVFR visibility should
prevail. LIFR ceilings cannot be ruled out overnight especially at
KMIV/KACY. MVFR visibilities possible at times in showers/fog. East
to northeast winds 5-10 knots. Low confidence on the timing/details,
but high confidence in prevailing restrictions.

Today...IFR ceilings early, though an improvement to MVFR should
occur for most terminals by 15Z or so. MVFR visibilities in showers
and drizzle/fog at times. Otherwise, mainly prevailing VFR
visibility. East to northeast winds near 10 kts. Low confidence on
the timing/details, but high confidence in prevailing restrictions.

Tonight...IFR ceilings likely developing, with some LIFR possible.
Fog development is possible as well, but lower confidence on this.
Scattered showers possible. Northeast winds 5-10 kts. High
confidence in prevailing IFR, but low confidence on details.


Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday night...Primarily below VFR conditions
expected with several rounds of rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms possible.

Wednesday through Thursday...Primarily VFR expected with at
times periods of sub-VFR conditions possible in thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain fairly stead state through tonight. ENE winds
remaining near 10-20 kts. Seas around 3-6 feet, greatest near and
north of Atlantic City through this morning. Seas should gradually
diminish into the afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect through noon today north of Great Egg Inlet. Periods of
showers, drizzle, and fog could cause visibility reduction at
times.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...No marine headlines are
expected. Winds will generally remain below 20 kt with seas of
2-4 feet. Several rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms are
expected through Thursday.

Rip Currents...

For today and Monday, winds will be out of the northeast and nearly
perpendicular to shore around 10-20 MPH, with 2 to 4 foot waves
within the surf zone. Multiple swell groups are expected as well,
with the longest period being around 8 to 9 seconds. This will
result in a MODERATE risk for the development of rip currents for
all beaches both days.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With onshore flow continuing over multiple tide cycles, water
will pile up within back bays and inlets. This will result in
some spotty minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic coastline
for areas in Atlantic and Cape May County, New Jersey and Sussex
County in Delaware. Cannot rule out some spotty minor tidal
flooding within the Delaware Bay and tidal Delaware River. The
overnight high tide cycle tonight looks to bring the highest
tides, with slowing declining water levels getting into next
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record breaking coldest high temperatures are forecast for
today. Records for our climate sites are listed below:

Record Coldest High Temperatures
                          June 15
Site                  Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)           57/1971
AC Airport (ACY)          63/1965
AC Marina (55N)           61/1884 & 1916
Georgetown (GED)          69/2007
Mount Pocono (MPO)        55/1971
Philadelphia (PHL)        64/1912
Reading (RDG)             61/1912
Trenton (TTN)             60/1971
Wilmington (ILG)          67/1933 & 1950

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ450>452.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Deal/DeSilva
NEAR TERM...Staarmann
SHORT TERM...Deal/DeSilva
LONG TERM...Deal/DeSilva
AVIATION...Staarmann/Deal
MARINE...Staarmann/Deal
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hoeflich
CLIMATE...Staarmann